ایمنی و قابلیت اطمینان: روش‌شناسی و کاربردها ۲۰۱۴
Safety and Reliability: Methodology and Applications 2014

1. Front Cover

2. Table of contents

3. Preface

4. Acknowledgements

5. Conference organization

6. Introduction

7. METHODOLOGY AREAS

8. Accident and incident investigation and modelling

9. An incident reporting support system for airline cabin crew

10. The effect of the environment conditions on the prediction of flammable cloud dispersion

11. Scenario identification in oil and gas industry: A case in the Middle East

12. Analysis of roadside safety barrier using numerical model

13. Developing a framework for characterising cascading failures in past events to inform emergency response decisions

14. A critical evaluation of risk assessment methodology for natural gas pipeline

15. An ontology-based approach to vulnerability and interdependency modelling for Critical Infrastructure systems

16. Renewable sources impact on power system reliability and nuclear safety

17. Titanic viewed from different perspectives on major accidents

18. Usability of accident and incident reports for evidence-based risk modeling of ship grounding

19. Winter navigation at the Baltic Sea: An analysis of accidents occurred during winters 2002–2003 & 2009–2013

20. Structuring contributors to successful operation

21. Country Safety Performance Function and the factors affecting it

22. Method of dynamic identification of hazardous driver behaviour by traffic parameters detection

23. The method of risk management of accidental oil spills at sea

24. The impact of new technologies on the safety level of air traffic in Poland

25. Black swan accidents: Predicting and preventing the unpredictable

26. Analytical methods in system safety and reliability

27. Studies of the jet engine control quality based on its response to the disturbance inflicted on the object, designated from its response to the set point inflicted to the controller

28. The mathematical formula of safety of aircrafts

29. The reliability analysis of the satellite’s driving system based on the IABCBLT method

30. The effectiveness of the FMEA technology in the process of the aerospace product development

31. Reliability modeling method of space mechanism considering dynamical cascading effects

32. Comparative analysis of calculation methods of pressure drops for two-phase flow through pipelines

33. Empirical Bayes inference with nonlinear homogenizations and correlated intensity functions: Use in asset degradation modelling

34. Dependence of the gas supply system criticality indicator(s) on the system elements’ reliability

35. Comparing societal consequence measures of outages in electrical distribution systems

36. On the resilience analysis of interconnected systems by a set-theoretic approach

37. A brief note on the ratio of the rectilinear and shortest distance between two arbitrary points on the 3-sphere

38. A game-theoretical model to allocate security resources in a multi-modal transportation system facing adaptive adversaries

39. Assessment of the critical events sequences of systems by means of probabilistic languages

40. RAM analysis applied to decommissioning phase: Comparison and assessment of different methods to predict future failures

41. Reliability indices computation for a flow network with a series-parallel-reducible structure

42. Minimal cut sets and direct partial logic derivatives in reliability analysis

43. On the probability of escaping a cell—in wireless networks

44. Reliability analysis of ship-rope transporter with dependent components

45. Maritime traffic flow simulation in the Intelligent Transportation Systems theme

46. Modeling of event trees for the rapid scenario development

47. The influence of screw propellers manufacturing accuracy on conditions of the propulsion system operating

48. Contribution to oil data assessment for system condition determination

49. Dependability and safety analysis of ERTMS level 3 using analytic estimation

50. Streamlining architectures for integrated safety analysis using Design Structure Matrices (DSMs)

51. The Markov reliability and safety model of the railway transportation system

52. Reliability analysis of rail teleinformation system

53. Premises of evaluation of the technical object suitability with including the quality of its maintenance and operation, and their initial conditions

54. Bivariate reliability analysis of driving profiles in automobile fleets

55. Attempt to apply the theory of reliability to assessment of signalised lane operation

56. Reliability-exploitation analysis of power supply in transport telematics system

57. Reliability-maintenance analysis of highway emergency communication systems

58. Hierarchical random models in road transport safety

59. Overall regional risk analysis of four Norwegian municipalities

60. Modeling reliability of complex port transportation system

61. Reliability optimization of complex port transportation system

62. Involvement of expert judgement in dynamic model

63. Anthropo-technical systems reliability

64. Cost-benefit analysis of surveillance technologies

65. Integrated estimation of pipeline failure probability

66. Reliability and safety management

67. Reliability engineering interactions in aerospace products

68. An influence of the lifetime assessment in aviation technology

69. How managers should think about risk—a case study from the oil and gas industry

70. Balancing safety and performance through QRA and RAM analyses

71. Public risk perception towards chemical process industry: Comprehension and response planning

72. Risk assessment system for verifying the safety guards system based on the HAZOP analysis information

73. Development of the Safety Requirements Specification (SRS) in oil and gas industry

74. Development of functional safety standards for civil engineering

75. Mechanism design for risk allocation and benefit sharing in the development of a Geological Disposal Facility for nuclear radioactive waste

76. Optimization of the drinking water coagulation and filtration system as a result of reliability analysis and Life Cycle Costing

77. Methods of visualizing the risk of lack of water supply

78. Concept for development of safety-related filters

79. Heat Supply System reliability management

80. Uncertainty in the regulation systems of temporary organizations: A challenge for improving the organizational reliability

81. Solutions and safety barriers: The holistic approach to risk-reducing measures

82. A multi-criteria decision model to mitigate the operational risks of offshore wind infrastructures

83. Evaluation of operational reliability of the supply chain in terms of the control and management of logistics processes

84. Effectiveness of national transport system according to costs of emission of pollutants

85. Experiments for PHM: Needs, developments and challenges

86. Effects of external audits on safety management systems: A case study of the Norwegian-managed maritime industry

87. Review of acceptable risk levels of bridge collapse in respect of ships collisions

88. A new approach for evaluating the disruption risks of a seaport system

89. Methodology for evaluation of barriers for rig move operations

90. Performance of skimmers in the Arctic offshore oil spills

91. Rethinking nuclear safety management: Injunction as a meta-concept

92. Using IRIDM & VTA to support the risk management of the research reactor Maria

93. Evaluation of risk impact of equipment ageing and asset management for LWR GEN II and III NPPs in the horizon 2020

94. Safety of the new control command European System

95. All swept up: An initial classification of NSA surveillance technology

96. Study of the security of processes running in computer operating systems

97. Control-in-the-loop Model Based Safety Analysis

98. Developing a shared information surface for offshore work permits

99. Graphical technique for practical dependability management

100. A discussion of the risk-management and the rule-compliance regulation regimes in a security context

101. Risk management in anchor-handling operations: The balance between control and autonomy

102. Safety and environmental control of industrial activities in France: A negotiated relationship

103. Risk assessment methods for improving urban security

104. Abstract representation of power system networks as a function of regularity properties

105. Drinking water quality aspect in ensuring the safety of water supply systems

106. Dynamic reliability

107. Using dynamic risk modelling in Single European Sky Air Traffic Management Research (SESAR)

108. Modification of response spectra by probabilistic approach

109. Dynamic Positioning systems with emphasis on harsh climate conditions

110. Wear time-dependent reliability analysis using Bayesian inference

111. RAVEN and dynamic probabilistic risk assessment: Software overview

112. Integrated Deterministic Probabilistic Safety Analysis (IDPSA) of a fire scenario

113. Dynamic reliability models for multiple dependent competing degradation processes

114. Expert methods in system safety and reliability

115. Development of a new algorithm for optimal multi-level redundancy allocation

116. Aircraft crew escape system assistant

117. A fuzzy system for evaluation of baggage screening devices at an airport

118. Quantification and modelling of epistemic uncertainties for availability risk of future offshore wind farms using expert judgment

119. Expert method and real time simulation in navigational safety analysis

120. Causal modeling in industrial Reliability and Maintenance Management

121. The application of risk and reliability techniques to acquire knowledge in the development of expert system for fault diagnosis

122. Failure identification and degradation processes

123. Life and reliability evaluation of tuner by Constant-Stress Accelerated Degradation Testing method

124. Estimation of lifetimes of components that operate under ageing-attributable wearing conditions

125. A Physics-of-Failure-based approach for failure behavior modeling: With a focus on failure collaborations

126. Fault diagnosis method for circuit board based on BP neural networks

127. Physics of Failures (POF) version B for MTBF prediction

128. An adaptive fault detection threshold hardware circuit design to reduce False Alarms

129. MUSTADEPT: A tool for the analysis of industrial equipment degradation

130. Provision of the reliable video surveillance services in heterogeneous networks

131. Identification of degradation processes of seabed protection in ports

132. The use of Self-Organizing Maps for diagnosing faults in motor bearings

133. Selected safety aspects of polymer composites with natural fibres

134. Application of selected diffusion processes on system state assessment

135. A modified Auto Associative Kernel Regression method for robust signal reconstruction in Nuclear Power Plant components

136. Experimental design for the evaluation of Critical Heat Flux of small-scale pressurized nuclear reactors

137. The stochastic approach in road network vulnerability analysis

138. Analysis of brake testing methods in vehicle safety

139. Hilbert-Huang Transforms for fault detection and degradation assessment in electrical motors

140. Volatility regime switching and jump-diffusion process for prognosis: Case of equity price modeling

141. Performance evaluation of Emergency Response Plans using a Multi-State System approach

142. Human factors and human reliability

143. The model of a pilot competency as a factor influencing the safety of air traffic

144. Human Dependability Model for space application—the HuDeM project

145. Towards safer air traffic: Optimizing ATC controller workload by simulation with reduced set of parameters

146. Human reliability test and identification of HCR model basic parameters for multi-factor “Meta-Operation”

147. Statistical analysis of past accidents and a methodology (MEDIA) for Human and Organizational Factors assessment in process industries

148. Predictive Human Error Analysis in Permit To Work system in a petrochemical plant

149. Anticipating impacts of change on individual behaviors within a perspective of safety management

150. Modeling and assessment of Performance Shaping Factors in construction

151. The impact of the use of subcontracting on organizational reliability and safety

152. Human error analysis: Review of past accidents and implications for improving robustness of system design

153. Operational and organizational barriers as means of enhancing safety and learning

154. Presumptions of culture: Applications and safety implications

155. Coding scheme to measure the operator’s workload in advanced Main Control Room

156. A survey of Bayesian Belief Network Applications in Human Reliability Analysis

157. Aggregating expert-elicited error probabilities to build HRA models

158. Organizational factor inclusion in Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) tools

159. Design methods of reducing human error in practice

160. Maintenance modelling and optimisation

161. A hierarchical framework for the measurement of maintenance efficacy and efficiency using performance indicators

162. State of the art in Operation and Maintenance planning of offshore wind farms

163. Maintenance of power systems considering time-dependent uncertainty

164. Decision-making support for maintenance optimisation of natural gas compressor stations

165. Optimization of maintenance and operational policies of an offshore wind farm subject to stochastic wind conditions

166. An age-based preventive maintenance for offshore wind turbines

167. Availability modelling and analysis of an offshore wind turbine using Extended Coloured Stochastic Petri Nets

168. Maintenance in availability of weapon systems under combat operation—optimization possibilities

169. Optimum CTV fleet selection for offshore wind farm O&M activities

170. Practical aspects of the application of RCM to select optimal maintenance policy of the production line

171. Hidden Markov Models for diagnostics and prognostics of systems under multiple deterioration modes

172. Application of the Maintenance Rule to Nuclear Power Plant systems through Bayesian Networks

173. Experience on risk-informed approach to Allowed Outage Time changes due planned maintenance

174. Expert system for means of transport maintenance processes performance. A comparative analysis for various types of rail vehicle

175. A Colored Petri Net model for railway track maintenance with two-level inspection

176. Analysis of the process of unloading containers at the inland container terminal

177. Reliability based model of the cost effective product reusing policy

178. Asset maintenance optimization: The case-study of an offshore wind farm

179. Maintenance planning for drum shearer machine based on its reliability characteristics and economical sensitivity analysis

180. A guide for Block Inspection Policy implementation

181. Availability model of technical objects—block inspection policy implementation

182. Condition-based maintenance policies for multi-component systems with Lévy copulas dependence

183. Application of standards in reliability prognosis of braking system of moving walks

184. Occupational safety

185. A Bayesian population variability analysis for estimation of the work time loss distributions due to occupational accidents

186. Continuous monitoring of at-risk behaviours: A risk-based statistical control method

187. Enhancing the implementation of Occupational Health and Safety interventions through a design of the socio-technical interaction

188. A risk-based approach to manage the Occupational Hazards in the Arctic drilling waste handling practices

189. Estimating individual occupational risk using registration data

190. Quantification of risk rates of occupational accidents

191. Quantitative risk assessment

192. Reliability assessment method for Ion thruster based on competing failure analysis and performance degradation data

193. Comparison of risk profiles for chemical process plants using PLATYPUS

194. The use of the combination of indexing and semi-quantitative methods in audits for individual risk assessment in the field of fire and explosion protection

195. Estimation of the impact probability of fragments produced by explosions of vessels: A case study

196. Dynamic risk assessment: Development of a basic structure

197. Joint applicability test of software for laboratory assessment and risk analysis

198. Is a QRA-based method suitable to guide Land Use Planning decisions in India?

199. The effect of maintenance on inflation correction in Dutch PPP projects

200. Handling dependencies in Probabilistic Risk Assessments using Evidential Networks

201. The use of geoevents in the risk management of Wastewater Treatments

202. Utilizing knowledge-to-number-processes in smaller and less resource intensive risk assessments

203. Risk assessment of ground water sources for emergency supply

204. Study of volcanic Na-Tech risks in primary Waste Water Treatments

205. Optimum concept of management and trade-off with risks

206. Possibilistic risk analysis of failure in water supply network

207. Multidimensional risk to networks of distributed systems

208. Mathematics of PRA applied to Distributed Generation curtailment in saturated grids

209. Priorities assignment for actions in a pipeline: A decision model to evaluate multiple objectives

210. Risk assessment in heat supply system

211. Vulnerability of Energy Infrastructure to intentional attacks—the interplay of resource, conflict and security

212. Solar storm impact on critical infrastructure

213. Accident risk assessment for deep geothermal energy systems

214. Enhancement of IT Risk Assessments by UML

215. Quantitative risk assessment of new ship designs in damage conditions

216. Review of risk concepts and perspectives in risk assessment of maritime transportation

217. Risk based assessment on increased gas safe machinery spaces of liquefied natural gas fuelled ship

218. Semi-qualitative method for ship collision risk assessment

219. RAPP method: Failure analysis and risk determination in automobile fleets within the case study electric actuator

220. Composite methodology for tsunami vulnerability assessment based on the numerical simulation of 1755 Lisbon tsunami—application on two Portuguese coastal areas

221. Monte Carlo simulation and Bayesian Evidence Synthesis

222. Amendments of the existing guidance on PSA application to nuclear power plants in Germany

223. Focus areas for a Level 2 PSA that supports a site NPP risk analysis

224. A PSA Level-1 method with repairable components: An application to ASTRID Decay Heat Removal systems

225. Effect of human factor in the analysis of changes to Limiting Conditions for Operation (LCO) applied to Residual Heat Removal System

226. Application of PSA for design optimization of VVER 440/213

227. Deriving a distribution for accident severity from an F-N curve

228. Geospatial modelling of rail safety hazards

229. Comparing the two methods for judging changes in European railways and in European nuclear safety

230. Combination of technological and economical risk assessment using the Monte-Carlo-Simulation

231. The results of a systematic study of the risks associated with the transportation of hazardous substances

232. Preference risk assessment of hazardous substances road transportation

233. Quantifying MSD risks through Job Hazard Analysis

234. Handling epistemic uncertainty in the Fault Tree Analysis using interval-valued expert information

235. Expressing and communicating uncertainty and bias in relation to Quantitative Risk Analysis

236. Safety analysis and CFD dispersion simulation of cryogenic release in a deep underground large scale cryogenic installation

237. Reliability and safety based system design

238. European survey on safety methods application in aeronautic systems engineering

239. Semi-formal static and dynamic modeling and categorization of airport checkpoints

240. Achieving safe designs through evaluation of options at the conceptual level of safety system design

241. Conventional correlation factors in the safety analysis of stochastic systems

242. Safety-based approach in multifunctional building design

243. Management of controls of fire protection systems in Switzerland

244. Electronic components with time-dependent failure rates—reasons, values and consequences

245. Availability and reliability evaluation of systems periodically maintained

246. Reliability and safety based design of lifesaving appliances systems

247. Nuclear power plant safety improvement with new system for safety injection

248. A systematic approach for defense against transient failures

249. Reliability allocation for a system with complex redundancy

250. Effective searching process used in obtaining Pareto solutions of two-objective network design problem

251. Reliability and safety data collection and analysis

252. SYMBAD—Artificial Neural Networks in furtherance of managing aircraft testing

253. Accelerated Life Test method for satellite electronic instrument

254. Reliability of the airlines operations system

255. Quantitative evaluation on storage reliability of pyrotechnics based on thermodynamic characteristic of dynamite and performance degradation data

256. Telematics used in the campaigns machinery safety management systems

257. Collection and analysis of failure data for pressure equipment

258. Reliability analysis of prototypes based on small and heterogeneous test data volumes. Case study: Organic fibre prototype analysis

259. How to present and understand uncertainty of production assurance analyses with respect to data quality

260. Universal method of battery life prediction

261. Reliability prediction of electronic boards by analyzing field return data

262. A double-loop Monte Carlo approach for Part Life Data Base reconstruction and scheduled maintenance improvement

263. Using field experience in the treatment of Common Cause Failures in reliability assessment

264. A geometric test for the analysis of contingency tables

265. Assessment of a remaining working life of energetic devices using service data

266. Model for Information Quality determination of teleinformation systems of transport

267. A framework proposal to analyse the performance of assets under complex system

268. Proven in use in the machine tool industry for demonstrating the quantitative functional safety according to EN ISO 13849-1

269. Probabilities in safety of machinery—Part 1: Risk profiling and farmer matrix

270. Probabilities in safety of machinery—Part 2: Theoretical and practical design

271. Research on reliability qualification test design by considering inheritance factor

272. Optimal design on Accelerated Degradation Testing with Gamma process for reliability demonstration

273. One producer, two brands: A comparison of car operating conditions

274. Ship voyage characteristics in Wuhan Yangtze River Bridge waterway

275. Fleet-level reliability estimation of repairable units

276. Reliability and safety education and training

277. Learning from failures: The case of Deepwater Horizon disaster

278. The representation of nuclear power in cinema: The contribution of a filmic analysis to understanding the public debate

279. On designing educational aids for users’ safety in road tunnels

280. Public buildings safety: Addressing a pilot evacuation exercise

281. Simulation methods in system safety and reliability

282. A safety analysis via minimal path sets detection for object-oriented models

283. The use of on-board flight recorder in the modeling process of aircraft landing operations

284. Reliability analysis for Runway Overrun using subset simulation

285. A meta model framework for risk analysis, diagnosis and simulation

286. Proposing a multi-layer modeling framework for complex infrastructure systems

287. Hybrid modeling and simulation approach selection to the reliability and vulnerability analysis of Critical Infrastructures

288. Time dependent gas transmission network probabilistic simulator: Focus on storage discharge modeling

289. Weekly availability changes of web applications implemented in virtualized environment

290. Dynamic approach to modeling MTBF/MTTR in industrial and logistics systems

291. A new Monte Carlo method for environmental contour estimation

292. On multistate technical system operation process influence on its reliability

293. Uncertainty improving in importance sampling: An integrated approach with fuzzy-cluster sampling

294. Conversion of a based risk model into a simulation model for simulation and analysis

295. Common cause failures modelling by means of Coloured Petri Nets for dependability assessment of a control system of nuclear power plant

296. Propagation of aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in quantification of systems failure probabilities or safety margins

297. Safe level of redundancy in Discrete Transportation Systems

298. Using Petri-Net analysis for advanced reliability analysis of polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cells

299. Analysis of ship navigation behaviors in the Wuhan Yangtze River Bridge waterway

300. A novel methodology for availability assessment of complex load sharing systems

301. Structural reliability and safety

302. Life distribution and P-S-N curve analysis of TC21 titanium alloy joint with Electron Beam Welding in ultra-high cycle fatigue regime

303. Optimal design of ground-mounted solar systems

304. Approximate quantification of the robustness index of concrete beams subjected to deterioration

305. A condition-based deterioration model for the crack propagation in a submerged concrete structure

306. Reliability assessment of cast-iron heritage structures

307. Reliability of structures in national codes to Eurocodes

308. On climatic actions combinations for probabilistic calibrations

309. In-plane buckling behaviors of shear-deformable columns with variable cross sections

310. Lateral buckling of varying arbitrary cross-section beams with shear effects

311. Methodology for the quantitative risk assessment of road bridges exposed to accidental events

312. Point estimate of dynamic reliability considering parameter uncertainties

313. The reliability analysis of welded tanks for oil storage

314. Determination of design load for a pile-guide system for large floating installations considering Life-Cycle Cost and probabilistic load distribution

315. Analysis of reliability and retaining levels of safety barriers

316. Safe reliability assessment through probabilistic constraint reasoning

317. Structural reliability for containment of VVER 440/213 type

318. Reliability updating based on monitoring of structural response parameters

319. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis

320. Comparative analysis of rapid calculation methods for physical explosions of pressure vessels

321. A study of determination of the design accidental fire load based on the quantitative Fire Risk Assessment with the treatment of uncertainty

322. Sobol’s sensitivity analysis of stability problems of steel beams

323. Quantitative vs. qualitative treatment of uncertain assumptions in risk assessment

324. Comparison of uncertainty models of impact of teleinformation devices reliability on information quality

325. Sensitivity analysis of geological parameters having impact on nuclear waste deep geological repository safety

326. Processes reliability and safety modelling

327. An impact of the operators and passengers behavior on the airport’s security screening reliability

328. Risk analysis of the point on aging aircraft structure

329. Risk assessment of a bulk cryogenic tank: Beyond the Leak-Before-Break criterion

330. Modeling of a degradation path set with a Gamma process mixture—application to a maintenance decision rule

331. Reliability of the delivery in the last 100 meters

332. Risk analytics within high-precision dental tool manufacturing: Multidimensional failure probabilities and validation

333. A unified model of systems dependability and process continuity for complex supply chains

334. Using quantitative stochastic model checking tool to increase safety and improve efficiency in production processes

335. Research on information system and its impact on distribution process of supply chain

336. Availability and reliability of resources in an agile manufacturing systems

337. Initial FMEA analysis of the container transport chain

338. On prudent activities in a complex system

339. Parallel computing for system availability and applications